Okay, so I’ve been messing around with this “Fantasy Football VBD” thing, and let me tell you, it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster. VBD stands for “Value-Based Drafting,” and it’s supposed to help you figure out which players are actually worth picking at different points in your draft. Sounds simple, right? Wrong.
First, I dug around online for some basic info. I figured I needed some projections – you know, how many points different players are expected to score. I found a few different sites offering those, some free, some you gotta pay for. I grabbed some free ones because, well, I’m cheap.
Getting My Hands Dirty
Then came the hard part: figuring out the “baseline.” The whole idea of VBD is that you compare a player’s projected points to some baseline, like the average score of a typical starter at that position. It gets tricky because the baseline changes depending on your league settings – how many teams, how many starters at each position, stuff like that.
I started by just guessing at the baselines. I figured, “Okay, maybe the 12th best running back is a good baseline?” I punched those numbers into a spreadsheet (yeah, I’m a spreadsheet guy). I basically subtracted the baseline points from each player’s projected points. This gave me a “VBD score.”
- Find Projections: Got these from a free website.
- Guess at Baselines: Started with the 12th best RB, 24th best WR, etc.
- Create Spreadsheet: Good ol’ spreadsheets to the rescue.
- Calculate VBD: Projected Points – Baseline Points = VBD.
I tried doing a few mock drafts using these VBD scores, and…it was a mess. I ended up with some weird teams, way overvaluing some positions and undervaluing others. Clearly, my baselines were way off.
Back to the Drawing Board
So, I went back and did some more research. I found some articles talking about using something called “replacement level” instead of just a simple average. The idea is you look at the worst player you’d actually start, not just the average starter. Makes sense, right?
This time, I tried to be a little more scientific. I looked at some past drafts from my league and tried to figure out around what pick the last starting-caliber players at each position usually go. I used those players as my “replacement level.”
I updated my spreadsheet with these new baselines, re-calculated the VBD scores, and…it was better. Still not perfect, but definitely better. My mock drafts started to look a little more reasonable.
Honestly, it’s still a work in progress. I’m tweaking the baselines, trying different projection sources, and playing around with it all. But I feel like I’m getting closer to figuring out this whole VBD thing. It’s definitely not a magic bullet, but it’s a cool way to think about player value, and that will be helpful to make a good draft.
